HTA Quarterly | Summer 2020

By Xcenda |

In this issue, our editors examine digital health technology (DHT) from a global perspective, the value drivers for emerging gene therapies for hemophilia, and the impact of the European Union’s new medical devices guidance on DHTs.

white paper

The Potential Impact of Pharmaceutical and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to Mitigate the COVID-19 Crisis in the United States: A Model-Based Analysis

As policy makers assess and respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, how will the current and proposed future interventions and strategies possibly affect outcomes in the US? That’s a question Xcenda set out to investigate in its latest white paper. Using an infectious disease model, we analyze the potential impact of both non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions in mitigating the COVID-19 health crisis. 
Download white paper

Heard on the Street

“States are considering when and how to ease social distancing. But easing social distancing policies involves a tactically and strategically complex cost-benefit balancing act due to the potential exponential growth of COVID-19. Testing will be crucial for disease surveillance as social distancing policies are eased and large-scale testing followed by contact tracing and isolation can help reduce disease transmission as social distancing is eased. Read Xcenda’s white paper based on a SEIR infectious disease model of the COVID-19 crisis to learn more about these scenarios and others.” 

- The Potential Impact of Pharmaceutical and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to Mitigate the COVID-19 Crisis in the United States: A Model-Based Analysis

HTA by the Numbers

141,000 COVID-19 Deaths 
Xcenda’s COVID-19 susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model base-case estimates (R0 = 3.2) 21.4 million infections, 141,000 deaths, and nearly $20 billion in total health costs in the US in 2020 as a result of the pandemic. Analyses were conducted to examine the potential impact of the level of disease transmission by varying R0, while assuming that social distancing reduces contact by 75% through the remainder of the year. The estimated number of total infections ranged from 14.1 million (R0 = 2.2) to 57.4 million (R0 = 4.2), while the number of deaths ranged from 93,000 (R0 = 2.2) to 376,000 (R0 = 4.2).